File Under Not Bloody Likely

In Campaigns and Elections, Joe Trippi, the former campaign manager for John Edwards, argues, rather unpersuasively, that if Edwards remained in the race he could have amassed enough power to broker the convention and a nomination for himself.

I didn't tell him what I should have told him: That I had this feeling that if he stayed in the race he would win 300 or so delegates by Super Tuesday and have maybe a one-in-five chance of forcing a brokered convention. That there was a path ahead that would be extremely painful, but could very well put him and his causes at the top of the Democratic agenda. And that in politics anything can happen-even the possibility that in an open convention with multiple ballots an embattled and exhausted party would turn to him as their nominee. I should have closed my eyes to the pain I saw around me on the campaign bus, including my own. I should have told him emphatically that he should stay in. My regret that I did not do so-that I let John Edwards down-grows with every day that the fight between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama continues.

Yep, anything could happen. The Democrats could nominate Al Gore, Joe Lieberman, or AL Franken. However, since Edwards didn't win a state and your polling, self admittedly, looked worse and worse, maybe it was a good idea he dropped out. In 04 he could not win against a weak set of candidates; in 08, he could not win though he polled well against McCain, heh. And I liked Edwards and wanted him to do much better in 04 and 08 than he did. But there is a point...

But my favorite line has to be this, which symbolizes the problem with Edward's campaign:

It's not only painful for those still on staff to part with friends and colleagues, but it's very tough to take the level of your campaign down in order to survive. A campaign gets used to flying around in a chartered jet and using an air-conditioned bus. Now you're looking at staying at a Motel 6.

A Motel 6? No, you couldn't stay there could you because you would have actually have to had been like the average middle class voters you were trying to reach. Nope, it is easier to say there are "Two Americas."

But why this piece, now? Well, it is in the hypothetical:

That would mean Edwards, Obama and Clinton would go into the convention without any of them close to sealing the nomination. You would have had months of Obama and Clinton banging away at each other, with Edwards able to come across to weary Democrats as a welcome, fresh face.? You'd have the electability argument begin to play to Edwards' advantage, since he always did well against McCain in polling. These possibilities and more played through my mind.

If the Supers will be the ones who choose, meaning democracy through elections does not matter, then why not choose the fresh face who polled better than McCain in January. Now that would be democracy...