Tomorrow is the day that voters in Rhode Island and Vermont will choose the Democratic Nominee for President. Oh, and voters in Ohio and Texas may have some say in the matter as well though most people are quite unsure of how the vote in Texas will go tomorrow. The Texas Observer has a "How To" guide on the caucus portion of the Texas vote. It seems that it involves voting once, going home & drinking, then returning to a caucus site, a dodgeball tournament, followed by a two-step competition, and then a final round consisting of a Rochambeau tournament.
By the way, if anyone caucuses tomorrow night, please post your observations and comments about the process. I would love to be there for the caucus portion.
MSNBC is billing tomorrow as the Second Super Tuesday. However, what is more interesting is that during almost every commercial break FOX has been running commercials on MSNBC for its own election coverage tomorrow night.
To review: here is what we know about the Democratic campaign.
According to MSNBC, the delegate count is 1,194 - 1,037. CNN posits that the delegate count is 1,378 to 1,269. Senator Obama has 1,184 pledged delegates and 194 Super Delegates; Senator Clinton has 1,031 pledged delegates and 231 Super Delegates. The New York Times has the count as Senator Obama 1,303.5 and Senator Clinton 1,212.
Including Super Delegates, there are 444 delegates at stake tomorrow though some of the Super Delegates have committed their vote. On March 8th, 18 delegates will be available in the all important Wyoming caucus. On March 11th, Mississippi will hold its primary with 40 total delegates available. Based on demographics and previous support, Senator Obama is expected to win both Wyoming and Mississippi.
After March 11th, there will only be seven more contests with 693 delegates available and, unless one candidate drops or or suspends his or her campaign, neither will reach the magic number without some help from Super Delegates. If both candidates stay in the race, both candidates will need more help from the Super Delegates. It is also important to note that Senator Clinton needs over 65% of the delegates in the remaining states just to catch up with Senator Obama. This includes everything from Rhode Island tomorrow to Puerto Rico on June 7th.
Tomorrow night will most likely be a split in terms of delegates. Here are the likely scenarios: Senator Clinton will win Rhode Island and Senator Obama will win Vermont, giving Senator Obama a slight advantage in delegates (5 at the most). As for Texas and Ohio, it is very unclear. A storm moving through Ohio may decrease some voter turnout or people will risk it because of their passion. In Texas, Obama has a slight advantage because African American districts will give him more delegates than the Latino districts because the delegate count is based on how the Texas state districts voted in the 2004 Presidential Election. Though President Clinton may be ahead in the popular vote because of a high Latino turnout, the delegate count in the primary will be close and it will not give either candidate an advantage.
As for the caucus, plan for chaos. Or maybe a riot. A report from The New Republic is not promising as some caucus sites are at senior activity centers that have only 35 parking spots and have scheduled bridge and ballroom dancing when the caucus will take place. I think dodgeball would be a better choice.
It is believed that no matter who wins the primary portion of Texas, Senator Obama will win the caucus. This makes sense because of Senator Obama's ground game. But this means that Texas will be a wash, leaving Ohio as a small or moderate win for Senator Clinton.
A best case scenario for Senator Clinton: she wins the popular vote in three states and she diminishes the delegate lead by 10 - 15. Further, she adds two more big states to her cause and helps her argument with the Super Delegates. Three victories would change the narrative about her campaign (that it is not the mess that it seems like) and allows her more support with Super Delegates or at least prevents more from leaving her. Finally, Michigan and Florida enter the conversation, again. But, a victory only allows her to continue to Pennsylvania, which means two more losses before this vote in April.
Best case for Senator Obama: A 2 - 2 split, giving Senator Obama the advantage in the delegate count for the night at around 10. This means that Senator Obama holds off Clinton in two states she led by over 20% two weeks ago. This also means that he continues with the momentum and dries up some of Clinton's donors who become skeptical of her viability. Additionally, he win will the next two and have a 15 - 2 winning streak as he heads into the Keystone state, where his ground troops are already in play. It is highly unlikely that Senator Obama wins 3 - 1. I don't think he will take Rhode Island and he will most likely not catch up in Ohio.
Other than the vote, here are a few important factors to consider:
(1)Senator Clinton announced that she has no plans to drop out after the vote Tuesday. Of course, why would she say anything else and chance the fact that some voters may not vote for her and donors turn away from her.
(2) Former President Bill Clinton and Governor of Pennsylvania Ed Rendell state Senator Clinton needs to win both Texas and Ohio though it is unclear if this is delegate count or popular vote i.e. like Iraq, the meaning of victory is unclear. Gov. Rendell's comments may be more credible as former President Clinton's comment may just be politicking for the vote.
(3) In February, Howard Dean declared that the nomination would be secure by March or Mid April to avoid a fight at the convention. A fight is to be avoided at all costs.
(4) After Super Tuesday, concerned Super Delegates for Senator Clinton told The New York Times that she needed to win Texas and Ohio comfortable or they would switch their support. This will not occur, though "comfortable" is certainly undefined.
(5) Former Presidential Candidate Bill Richardson stated that tomorrow is "D-Day" and that the candidate with the most Delegates after Tuesday would be the presumed nominee while the candidate with fewer delegates should suspend or drop out. This is interesting since Richardson owes his career to the Clintons and, I would argue, may be one of the Super Delegates in number three above. This means that after the voting on 3/4, there will be a break on the uncommitted Super Delegates in favor of the candidate with the most pledged Delegates.
Knowing all of this: What is the best Narrative/ Argument After Tuesday?
(1) Both candidates continue the primary contest. If this is to occur, the negative tone between Senator Obama and Senator Clinton will diminish the chances of either candidate in the fall.
(2) An extended race means that the DNC will not be able to fundraise. While both candidates will raise money, this may hurt the DNC for the fall.
(3) An extended race means that the negative ads by the Democrats (the 3:00am ad)will haunt the Democrat candidate in the fall. A negative race now provides the Republicans with fodder for the fall.
(4) A consideration of the opposites: The attacks between Senator Obama and Senator Clinton will help the nominee because all of the attacks and refutations means that these arguments will be settled and off the table for the fall. Further, if they stay in they will only sharpen their political skills for the General Election.
(5) If both candidates stay in on the Democratic side, then they will get all of the news coverage, which is important because over the next seven weeks they will get all the attention while Senator McCain gets very little. This is key because Senator McCain may only be able to spend $5 million before the convention if he is pledged to public financing.
(6) Let all of the voters decide, this means Michigan and Florida though I am unsure as to what would happen in terms of the vote already taken and a possible new vote.
(7) It is best for someone in the party to have a Berry Goldwater Conversation with Senator Clinton to tell her that if she continues in the race it may lead to the destruction to the party's chances in the Fall. A similar argument is that if she attempts to take the nomination at the convention, then she will destroy the party (Senator Goldwater approached President Richard Nixon and told him he needed to step down because the Senate would no longer protect him for Watergate and an impeachment would occur.)
(8) Senator Clinton needs to stay in the race, especially if she wins 3 states tomorrow, because voters in the Democratic Party will have "Buyer's Remorse" with Senator Obama.
(9) If Senator Clinton wins Ohio and Texas, and then Pennsylvania, then she would have won the big states (except for Florida, Michigan, Illinois, Georgia, and Most likely North Carolina.) The Big state theory means the Super Delegates should vote for her. Though, this means Democrats in non-big states possess a vote that is not worth that of a Democrat in a big state. A similar argument is that Senator Clinton receives the authentic "Democratic" vote, while Senator Obama receives the support for Independents and some Democrats. Another similar argument is that Senator Clinton receives the beer drinking vote while Senator Obama receives the wine drinking, latte vote.
(10) Follow the math- The Senator Clinton campaign will never be able to catch up in delegates since they need to win each contest by a 60% - 40% or 65% - 35% split in delegates. Slate has a delegate calculator if you would like to do the Math. This means the Super Delegate should support Senator Obama. This has an "inevitable" feel to it, which is ironic for the ways in which the candidates ran their campaigns.
Did I miss anything?
Finally, a question: is it bad that the Super Delegates determine the race on Wednesday, before the vote in Pennsylvania and before the DNC determines what it needs to do in Michigan and Florida? The party knows it needs to settle things in Florida and Michigan to have a chance there in fall. An extended campaign makes this unlikely, which means that the DNC will give up the state in the general election.
8 comments:
That there's a solid post. Covers everything, except it doesn't judge what has happened with Michigan and Florida as harshly as Harrogate would have liked.
We will see what happens tomorrow.
One interesting thing Hillary Clinton said on The Daily Show tonight, this Primary is not running overlong by any historical standards. She maintains she is close enough that her continuance in the race is justifiable, and her case is highly credible.
But whatever is deemed best for the Democratic Party post-tomorrow, Harrogate feels confident that this is what Hillary Clinton will do. For she is above all true to the Party. She wants to be President, but she knows what is most important is that Either she or Obama win.
If they split, I think that the relevant arguments for Wednesday are the health of the party, that math, and the Super Delegates.
If Clinton wins 3 - 1 and wins the Super Delegates, then the Big State arguments and let the people decide resonates until the Keystone State.
Yet, I would watch the Super Delegates on Wednesday. The Uncommitted ones will hold the key.
To follow up on the Super Delegate argument, on Morning Joe Tom Brokaw reported that Senator Obama is waiting to announce that 50 Super Delegates will declare publicly their support for Senator Obama.
This means that, one, in the background or back room, the Democratic Party may be ready to end this and, two, Senator Obama has news (Super Delegates) waiting for tomorrow and the end of the week to take away any positive coverage Senator Clinton may receive.
Hmmm. Obviously, the use of Super Delegates to affect news coverage is okay, since it's Obama. Indeed, Super Delegates flat out deciding the outcome of the race would be okay, should they do it in Obama's favor.
Because, you know, "something is happening."
I did not report it because I think it is okay. I noted that piece of information because I believe that is what will happen after today and and, remarkably, this belief has nothing to do with my support for one candidate. This is an expectation on how I am interpreting the current campaign.
It is interesting that the "something is happening" remark developed from the response Lewis felt from his constituents who were persuading him to switch his vote. This seems to be as an example of how democracy works. I think it would also be proper for citizens in Mass. to challenge Kerry and Kennedy since the state went for Clinton but they support Obama. This too would be appropriate as it is grounded in democratic accountability.
Finally, if you are referring to the Chelsea Clinton debate we had, remember, my problem was that she was unaccountable and the Clinton campaign refused to make her "public" though she attempted to influence the election. While former President Clinton is unaccountable to voters he can be challenged in the public realm.
Unless Senator Clinton drops out and Senator Obama receives up to 90% of the delegate after today, the Super Delegates will play a role. Yet, there will be a point that even with support from Super Delegates and the loss of delegates in the 3/4 states and beyond, Senator Clinton would not be able to get the nomination unless all of the Super Delegates for Obama would switch their allegiance.
One other comment: on the history nature of the length of this campaign, that is a misleading comment.
Remember, when former President Clinton won the nomination in 1992, he secured it in the California primary, which occurred in June. However, the primaries were not front-loaded that year as they were this year.
The circumstances are not the same.
some rejoinders:
1)Your disclaimer that you yourself are reporting, not evaluating, is of course accepted in good faith. But it is still true that there would be louder outcry from Obama supporters, if Supers swung the nomination to Clinton, than there would or will be if the apposite, more likely scenario occurs.
2)As for John Lewis, Harrogate went on record at the time saying he thought Lewis's remark silly. Clearly Lewis is under pressure as an African American leader. The old, do you want to be the one vote who denies an African American the Presidency, canard.
"Something is happening" is not an argument that would even get a "D" from any composition instructor worth his or her salt. Identifying precisely what that something is, is harder to do.
Further, Lewis said it, but he isn't by a damn sight the only one who has said it. Going back to the recent installment of Real Time, Bill Maher asserted that "something is happening," and that furthermore, people are gravitating towards Obama for reasons they could not articulate.
That this is right in the wheelhouse of demagoguery, yea and even outright Fascism, did not seem to occur to the wise Maher, however. When Governor Rendell reminded Maher that charisma is an important quality for a Leader, but ought not to be the driving thing, Maher had no response for him. Quite the contrary, according to Maher and suddenly a lot of Obama supporters on the web and on television, it is a thing to be Praised, this surrealistic image of supposedly three-dimensional human beings simply Flowing towards a candidate, as though drawn by a Pied Piper.
Yet, us literary folk know the moral of the "Pied Piper" story.
All of which is particularly interesting given your strong assertions of Agency with respect to Obama supporters. Does not Agency, at least any respectable version of it, require a little more than "something is happening and I want to be part of it"???
3)Let the recrod show that all along Harrogate has shown ambivalence towards Super Delegates, regardless of who they benefit in the end. At the same time, though, Harrogate has multiply asserted that the nomination will most certainly be decided in SOME manner that will make the "loser" feel as though they were screwed over. There is no way around this. The thing to do will be to suck it up and shill hard for the nominee, no matter what the feelings inside.
4)Her point on the Daily Show was about more than simply citing Bill Clinton's victory in 1992. The core thesis was and is, what is the hurry? It is only March. That this thing needs to be "ended" is a highly disputable construct.
Just saw a poll this morning that a vast majority of respondents want Hill to stay in the race if she wins Ohio and not Texas. So I think we've got quite a month ahead of us, Situationers!
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