With two weeks left in the Presidential Race, Senator John McCain is attempting to hold on to most of the Bush states from 2004 and win Pennsylvania or hold on to most of the 2004 Red States, win New Hampshire, and one electoral vote from Maine. These are the only scenarios available to McCain.
In 2004, Bush won the election with 286 electoral votes. The key in that race was either Ohio (20 electoral votes) and Florida (27 electoral votes).
Right now, polls show that McCain is behind in Virginia (13), Colorado (9), New Mexico (5), Nevada (5), and North Carolina (15).
According to TNR, The McCain campaign is withdrawing from Iowa (7), Colorado (9), and New Mexico (5) and will put all of his resources in Pennsylvania (20) though McCain is not polling well there (See 538 which suggests Obama has a 9 point advantage through the poll averages). Even if McCain does not win Pennsylvania, he has options in New Hampshire (4) and Maine (he could pick off one Congressional district since Maine splits its electoral votes), which would get him to 270.
Essentially, these are McCain's hopes:
(1) He must hold the Red States from 2004 = 286 Electoral votes. This will not happen.
(2) He must hold all of the Bush states except Colorado, Iowa, and New Mexico AND win Pennsylvania. This is unlikely.
(3) He must hold all of the Bush states except Colorado, Iowa, and New Mexico, AND win New Hampshire and 1 Congressional District from Maine. It is easier to campaign in one state than two, especially when your V.P. refers to New Hampshire as being in the Northwest.
If McCain loses Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, or Virginia, McCain has no path to 270 since he will lose Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico.
The polls in Virginia close at 7pm EST. Once these polls close, the country will possess a good idea of who will be the next president.
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