Here are 10 things to think about for Tuesday.
(1) Because of the "winner takes all" approach for the Republicans, McCain win be on his way to win the Republican nomination. This is not surprise. Yet, what Reagan began, McCain will end.
(2) McCain's success will mean that Michael Bloomburg will not run. This means that Ron Paul may be the only third party candidate. Sigh.
(4) The key numbers are 60% - 40% or 55% - 45%. If Hillary gets closer or passes the 60% threshold on Tuesday, she will be the nominee. If Obama hits 40% and moves closer to 50%, he will be the nominee. He has deeper pockets and his momentum is gaining. If Super Tuesday were February 12th, Obama would win the aggregate. But, you play the game when scheduled.
(5) The key states on Tuesday will be California and Missouri. California may be close; Missouri picks winners (the state has picked 25 out of the last 26 presidents). from what I know, New York is a lot closer than people think because of Brooklyn and the Bronx.
(6) If Super Tuesday is closer to the 50% mark, then the Super Delegates will play a very large role. (Other than being completely ironic since the party of the people will not be chosen by the people), the Super Delegates will pick who they think will win the general election and not just the primary. This means that those the Super Delegates who have "pledged" may change their pledge.
(7) The role of independents. In some states independents cannot vote (closed primaries); in some states they participate in Democratic primaries and not Republican.
(8) A 100 delegate lead after Super Tuesday may be too hard to overcome with proportional representation in the Democratic primaries. The longer the race continues, the harder it will be for Clinton to win the nomination.
(9) Both Clinton and Obama will declare a victory. The public will not know who to believe.
(10) Mitt will still be a schmuck and Huckabee will take votes away from him. Today, on one of the talk shows, he argued against McCain-Feingold (campaign finance) because it is unconstitutional (which is it) and it hurts the Republican party (which makes him look like a schmuck for insisting that the Constitution serves one party). I would like to see him argue on what grounds the executive can hold people indefinitely in Cuba (he stated, in one debate, that they should double the size of the prison there.) Nice method of Constitutional interpretation-- rely on what ever methods that helps my party. No wonder why conservatives don't vote for you. Good Grief.
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