Dean, Delegates, and Doom...?

On NY1, Howard Dean stated that there will not be a brokered convention. The issue will be resolved before Denver, even if he needs to ask one of the two candidates to drop out. Here is what Dean said:

“The idea that we can afford to have a big fight at the convention and then win the race in the next eight weeks, I think, is not a good scenario. So, after the primaries are over, the last primary is June 8th in Puerto Rico - Puerto Rico I think, there may be another state with there - and after that if we don’t have a nominee, I think we will have a nominee sometime in the middle of March or April. But if we don’t, then we’re going to have to get the candidates together and make some kind of an arrangement. Because I don’t think we can afford to have a brokered convention, that would not be good news for either party."

If you are in this situation, what do you do? Here are the facts as of February 5th:

Obama has a lead with pledged delegates.
Clinton has a lead with pledged delegates and super delegates.
Obama has won more states.
Clinton has won the popular vote.

There is no likelihood that there will be a joint ticket. These candidates do not like one another. And, with Bill Clinton there, it would cause a stir.

Between now and the beginning of June, there are 1738 delegates available through primaries, caucuses, and Super Duper Delegates.

Obama will win Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington, Maine, D.C. Virgina, Maryland, Washington, and Hawaii. By win, I do not mean a decisive victory, but proportional victory of 599 votes.

Texas is a partial primary, mostly caucus beast of a hybrid and I have no idea what will happen.

Clinton will run well in, and possibly win Pennsylvania, and Ohio. But again, the win will be proportional and Obama will do very well. I say this tentatively because of Obama's victories in February and because of Clinton's financial problems. Even the Clinton camp is conceding that Obama will win the other states in Feb, though this may be political posturing. There are 680 delegates available in this mess.

After April, there will be 459 delegates remaining before the convention. This means:

• No one candidate will have the nomination based on delegates alone.
  
• Obama may be in the lead with delegates and Clinton with Super Delegates and Population, though by that time, Obama may gain on the Super Delegate count.

If you are DNC Chief Dean, what do you do? What matters more: delegates? Super Delegates? The voice of the people? The traditional electoral establishment? Who can beat the Republicans? Who will keep the base and independents? The Young or Old?

How do you prevent a split?