Tuesday, February 05, 2008

As the hour draws near....

It is almost 9pm on the east coast. Have there been many surprises so far?

Huckabee seems to be doing much better than expected. The same with McCain.

On the Democratic side, it is too early to tell much of anything. Even the polls that closed at 8pm est have not revealed much.

Any thoughts?

8 comments:

solon said...

MSNBC just announced some delegate counts. Chuck Todd stated.The campaigns seem to agree on these numbers.

Arkansas (Clinton) 23 - 12
Georgia (Obama) 60 - 27
Illinois (Obama) maybe 111 - 42
Mass. The candidates who wins the popular vote may lose the delegate count... though the count will be around 48 - 45.
Tenn. (Clinton) 38 - 30.
Oklahoma- (Clinton) 23 - 13

harrogate said...

Harrogate as this point is allowing himself to be cautiously optimistic that Romney will be dealt, if not fatal electoral blows this evening, then terminal ones at the very least, when all is said and done.

Of course, with California looming, it aint over, but the signs are indicating good things if you understand the disastrous social and economic ramifications of a Romney Presidency.

Another satisfying thing about this is the bitch-slap it will deliver at the likes of Limbaugh, Dobson, Hannity, Hewitt, Savage, Levin, Ingraham, Coulter, the whole damned echo chamber. These shills have gotten it into their heads that they control the political process, they're so used to echo chamber discourse they might really be surprised by what is happening. It will be good to tune in and listen to the indignant squealing, and the doomsday prophesying, should John "my friends" McCain indeed pull off the GOP nomination.

So much the more satisfying on all fronts, so sayeth Harrogate, that at least some of this is coming indirectly at the hands of Huckabee, whom all the Mormon's money, and all his contempt, could not drown.

AcadeMama said...

harrogate: your comment reminded me of a saying the news pundits repeated on the evening show, "my enemy's enemy is my friend"...i bet mccain is luuuhhhhving that phrase right now :)

oh yeah, and props to my peeps in ok for backing the hc!

harrogate said...

academama:

Yes. One could perhaps argue, smilingly, that Romney is being screwed. Here he's put upwards of 35 Million of his own dollars into the race; he's got the K-Streeters, the economic backbone of the party squarely behind him; and as of now he's still getting nowhere (knock on wood).

Yea, it is really quite pleasing to behold.

solon said...

Its after 10pm on the East Coast.

Harrogate- I have no idea what you have against Romney. I still don;t understand the Mormon thing. And it seems like you should be somewhat sympathetic to him because of the way in which he brought health care to the people of Mass. By the way, did you know he saved the Olympics.

Even though he has had a poor showing tonight, he might win California and Minnesota, along with Utah and Mass.

If I could ask him one question, I would ask him why he thinks that John Maynard Keynes believes tax cuts need to be permanent.

At one point on the Fox coverage, which has provided better analysis than MSNBC, Laura Ingraham stated maybe that McCain, if he receives the nomination, that he should select Romney as VP to appease the conservatives. I can't imagine that. It seems that talk radio is not as powerful as their egos think.

The joke on MSNBC and Fox is that McCain is winning all of the Blue States.

On the Democratic side:
(1) HRC is doing very well in NY but not well enough. She cannot get above the 2/3 vote necessary to take advantage of the proportional representation. In the counties that matter around NYC, Obama is leading one (on the island) and is close in Brooklyn and Manhattan. This matters because Obama's victory in Georgia and Illinois will be greater than Clinton's victory in NY and Mass.

(2) Connecticut and Delaware go to Obama, which is a surprise. Delaware is troubling because of the racial-bloc voting.

(3) Obama is doing very well in the um...the outer mid-west? Obama may win Minnesota, as well as taking Utah, North Dakota, Idaho, and Colorado.

(4) Missouri should go to Clinton. Clinton did well in Missouri, Tennessee, and Arkansas. These states off-set the Obama wins in the upper-nowhere states.

(5) California will split.

Romney is speaking now, and "This campaign is going on." He's going to keep battling all the way to the White House.

As for the direction of the Democrats: today will be close, too close in terms of delegats, which will cause a problem between the popular vote and the delegate count.

On 2/9 & 2/10, there are caucuses in Maine and Nebraska. Obama has done very well in those, will it continue? On 2/12, there are primaries in D.C., Virginia, and Maryland, which should go to Obama. Or, the majority of delegates will go to Obama and the minority, Clinton.

Also- who can raise more money in February? Obama raises $3 to every $1 for Clinton. Obama is already advertising in the 2/12 states.

Harrogates favorite part--- "They haven't."

solon said...

Every time I hear Mitt speak, and listen to him get excited about his ideas, I think he is going to break down and cry... I asked the people to vote for me..."They Haven't."

solon said...

Right now, Fox is reporting on voting problems in California as well as trying to open up controversy on Florida and Michigan.

With a McCain victory, you need to rile the base against Clinton.

harrogate said...

Some fun comments on this thread.

First megs, and now solon, have subtly tried to succeed in appealing to Harrogate's better nature (does it exist) with respect to Mormons. But....

They Haven't.

No, really. In all seriousness. Harrogate has been annoyed by the lie, propagated from all vectors of discourse during this election season, that Mormons are like some slightly different Christian denomination.

Neither Joseph Smith nor Brigham Youn identified as Christians. In fact this is a new register, one borne specifically of Romney's efforts to get the White House.

While Mormonism shares important tenets and foundational myths, it is a very different religion with different Holy texts and a different historical and mythological trajectory.

So, given the spectacular Firstness of a Mormon getting this close to the White House, have we been encouraged to celebrate diversity of faiths and freedom of religion? No, from the College Station speech on through the present, it has been 'look how much exactly like you guys I am.'

This is called selling out.

As for his record as Governor, that was the Old Romney, he did what he had to do in the political climate he was in. What he is standing for now is exactly what we have. Except with the twist that he's an Outsider.

Romney's been hoping people will buy all his gymnastics. But

They Haven't!