Thursday, May 08, 2008

The Michigan Problem....and Electability

First, Michigan Democrats agreed to a plan that would split the Democratic Presidential Delegates 69 - 59 in favor of Senator Clinton, allowing the delegates to be seated at the convention.

The Obama campaign agreed to the terms of the deal. However, the Clinton Campaign rejected this proposal because it would not include the popular vote.

This is a "Heads I win, tails you lose" scenario for her. If she accepted the proposal, then that would guarantee her loss in the primary today no matter what happens between now and the convention. Of course, since she rejected the deal, her argument, and ethos, over seating Michigan and Florida takes a major hit as she rejected a proposal that would seat one of the states. It is hard to argue that you want to make sure the voices have been heard and reject deals that would make that possible. Just ask the Obama campaign.

As long as she argues from a position of weakness, she will most likely not get a better deal on this matter.

Second, the Clinton campaign believes publicly that Senator Obama cannot win in November. Yet, for Clinton to win the nomination, there would need to be intra-party chaos from now until the convention, which conventional wisdom suggest that the Democrats would not be able to win in the General Election. Maybe privately the Clintons believe differently. A Reasonable interpretation of their actions would be that the Clinton campaign believes a Democrat will win no matter who the nominee and no matter when the nomination is secured. If the Clintons are political realists, this would be the only way for them to stay in the race now and jeopardize a possible 2012 run. It appears 2008 may be their best chance for the White House.

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