Wednesday, May 07, 2008

12:11 am: May the General Election Begin

The race is over.

Politico reports that Senator Clinton loaned her campaign more money. On MSNBC, Tim Russert reports that she canceled her TV appearances on the Wednesday morning shows and other public appearances.

At this point, Indiana is too close to call with 8% of the vote left to tally. The problem for Senator Clinton is that Lake County, the northwest corner of the state, has not fully reported its vote tally. With 28% of the vote counted, Obama cut a 40,000+ lead down to 20,000. To say this county will go to Obama is an understatement. Further, there are three more counties out: a sparsely populated county that Clinton will win and two larger counties that Obama will win.

Senator Obama may not win Indiana but Senator Clinton will not continue the race. A few Super Delegates will approach her tomorrow when her campaign meets.

****Update: Senator Clinton still has some public appearances today, with stops in West Virginia and a fundraiser tonight. However, her chances are still grim as not many will be donating to her campaign and her campaign email last night did not ask her supporters for money. The AP, via Politico, reports that Senator Clinton loaned her campaign $6.4 million last month.

In his speech last night, Senator Obama reached out to Senator Clinton to help bridge the divide between the two candidates and their supporters. In her speech, Senator Clinton presented two themes, one on winning and one on unity, though the second theme was not as clear. Look for Senator Obama to continue to ask for reconciliation. As for Senator Clinton, if she desires to continue, she will attack Senator Obama in West Virginia. If she knows that she will not be the nominee, look for her to attack only Senator McCain and graciously walk out of the campaign in case she wants to run at a future time. If she attacks Obama in the next two weeks, knowing that she cannot be the nominee, she will not be able to run again in the future. The negative campaigning is over.

What to expect from here: By May 20th, Senator Obama will win the majority of pledged delegates. To secure the nomination, a candidate needs to win the majority of total delegates 2,025. By the primary in Oregon, look for Senator Obama to clinch the nomination. A deal will be in place for Michigan and Florida by that time.

****Update Two: On a conference call, the Clinton campaign played the racial bloc voting card-- Senator Obama cannot win white voters. This may not be over as the Clinton campaign may try to run up the score in Kentucky and West Virginia.

1 comment:

Oxymoron said...

I followed your link to the Politico post and read some of the comments. One person called Clinton "the pantsuit panderer." That's funny!