The double-header will be a split as Senator Clinton will win Indiana by an estimated of 4 - 5 % and Senator Obama will win North Carolina by 10 - 15%. With the double-digit lead in North Carolina, Senator Obama will erase most if not all Senator Clinton's advantage in Pennsylvania from 4/22 in both delegate count and popular vote. Senator Clinton will most likely not be able to take the lead in pledged delegates or the popular vote.
Of course, what does this mean?
First, tonight is a victory for Senator Obama. Senator Clinton needed both states to make a claim to the nomination. Further, she needed to avoid a blowout. Neither happened. After tonight, the nomination is further from her grasp as her only argument is "electability" and not pledged delegates or popular vote. In a sisyphean sense, this means that the race for the nomination has not changed since the beginning of March. Though the goalposts seem to be changing, the candidates positions have not.
Second, the exit polls suggest that the divisions between the Clinton supporters and the Obama supporters is growing. Time may heal the division but it will take a lot of time. This suggests that there may be some Super Delegate movement this week. If they were to declare for Senator Clinton they would have done so by now and, with a double-digit loss, Senator Clinton may not be able to hold them in place.
Third, the division and the closeness of the race may suggest a Unity ticket. I still think that because of the apathy between the candidates and the specter of Bill hanging over the ticket, this will not happen as prominent Democrats, such as Nancy Pelosi, object to this. If anything, look for the nominee to seriously consider, if not ask, a prominent surrogate from the other party.
Fourth, with losses tonight, if Senator Clinton believes she can still win the nomination she must invoke some "nuclear option" on Senator Obama by Oregon on May 20th or when the DNC credential committee meets on 5/31 to discuss Michigan and Florida. Clinton will win Kentucky and West Virginia in the next two weeks. However, if she loses Oregon and does not do well with Michigan and Florida, her probability of wining will be close to zero. Of course, if Super Delegates commit publicly, then this option becomes meaningless.
Fifth, a few commentators on MSNBC state that Senator Obama can clinch the nomination by May 20th. This means that the delegate count is 2025 (without Michigan and Florida). If this were the case, then the decision on Michigan and Florida does not matter. Symbolically, this is very important as the the DNC prize has been 2025 though Clinton campaign wants the media to adopt a new standard that includes Michigan and Florida. If Obama reaches 2025 before the media and the people acknowledge another threshold, it would be impossible to take the nomination away. Consequently, Senator Clinton must push for Michigan and Florida before Senator Obama announces 25 - 50 Super Delegates. This is the only race that matters.
Sixth, the speaking situations tonight will be interesting as Senator Obama must begin calls for unity. On the other hand, Senator Clinton may continue to attack or she may begin to pull back the reins, though even if she attacks her campaign may reassess in the morning.
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