Why The Democratic Primary is Important

According to The New Republic, all signs point to the fact that the winner of the Democratic Primary will be the next President of the United States:

There are many factors that point to an across-the-board Democratic victory in November, including the extraordinary unpopularity of President Bush, the deteriorating condition of the economy, the unpopularity of the war in Iraq, and the fact that Americans prefer the Democratic position to the Republican position on almost every major national issue. However, the most important Democratic advantage, and one that has received relatively little attention in the media, is the fact that for the past six years the Democratic electoral base has been expanding while the Republican electoral base has been shrinking.

There may be a few flaws with this article. For example, the article states that citizens that identify as Democrat has increased by 7% while citizens identifying as Republican decreased by 7% and that heavy Democratic turnout in the primary is a sign for heavy turnout in the state. This of course may not be true. For example, even if greater party identification leads to new voter registration and even if new voter registration may favor democrats, unless it occurs in the swing states it may not matter in terms of the electoral college. Also, heavy turnout in the primary may not make a bit of difference for the fall as it is not clear that the primaries serve as any indication for the fall general election.

Nonetheless, there are good signs everywhere.

Also, if true, this makes my last point irrelevant.