Today is the day, the first day of the rest of your political lives. Or, maybe not. It depends mostly on how many people will get out to vote today, for whom will the undecideds break for in the primary, and what effect will the newly registered voters (350,000+) in Pennsylvania have on the primary?
If you are interested, The Washington Post has eight questions about the Primary today. Politico has five indicators for today's vote. From Slate, there will be no brokered convention because there are no brokers. Finally, from Ezra Klein at The American Prospect, if moderators were to conduct, a good, soft debate, read interview, (rather than the soft, ABC debate), the questions may focus on why Senator Clinton went from a Goldwater Girl to Wellesley radical (intellectual political development); ask Obama about lessons learned from working in an investment bank ("real world experience"); ask about the last book of fiction they read, an intellectual passion other than politics, a bad boss, major in college & why? These questions would reveal their personalities without focusing on gaffes.
For my purposes, I would like to focus on when is a "win" a "win"?
The scenarios for today are:
Scenario One: A victory by Senator Obama ends this game. This is unlikely. Though Senator Obama closed a 20 point gap from a few weeks ago and 33 from November, it is unlikely he could finish this game here. Senator Clinton has too much name recognition and institutional strength for a full victory. This has been the case for all large, Democratic strongholds (New York, California, Massachusetts, Ohio, and Texas) where Senator Clinton began with an incredible institutional advantage. For example, before the election started, Senator Clinton had a 100+ Super Delegate lead. Of her 262 Super Delegates, almost 100 Super Delegates are from New York alone.
Scenario Two: A small, one-point victory by Senator Clinton. In this case, a victory is not a victory as Senator Clinton will win the battle but lose the war. With this "loss," Senator Clinton will lose the ability to raise funds, which is important as she is in severe dept and, according to MSNBC's Chief Political Correspondent, Chuch Todd, she will most likely not contest North Carolina. This means Senator Obama will will push up his totals in North Carolina, which will most likely happen anyways, making the battle moot.
As for the Super Delegates, in scenario one and two, the Super Delegates will jump on mass to Senator Obama, as they will want to focus their attention on the general election. Further, if Senator Clinton does not leave the race, it would be best if Senator Obama acted as if she did and turned his attention to John McCain.
Scenario Three: Senator Clinton wins by 3 - 6 points. A victory in this range could mean anything though it still favors Obama. This may still be considered a victory by Senator Obama as he reduced the polls from a 20 point difference to a small difference. Senator Clinton will gain in the popular vote but this will be rendered moot by North Carolina. Further, it is unclear if Senator Clinton will be able to raise more money. Basically, Senator Clinton will win for another day.
Scenario Four: A Senator Clinton victory between 7 - 9 percentage points. This starts to look like a loss by Senator Obama but it is not a decisive victory by Senator Clinton. As Chuck Todd states, the $9 million spent by Senator Obama on advertising in PA would not have been as effective as it could have been. Maybe it would have been better spent in Indiana. Yet, a 7 - 9 point victory does not mean Clinton will pull ahead in the popular vote, gain more Super Delegates, or be able to gain enough funds to fight on to other states. When you are heavily favored and you receive mixed results, the campaign no longer looks like a wise investment, for political capital or monetary funds. The campaign will continue for another two weeks to await the results in North Carolina and Indiana but, without funds...
Scenario Five: A Clinton win by double-digits. With this, Clinton may seem viable, she may gain funds & Super Delegates, and she may raise doubts about Senator Obama. The most favorable result would be for the Clinton campaign to gain 200,000+ votes to reduce Senator Obama's 700,000+ vote lead and Pennsylvania is her best chance to do this. Further, she will need the "momentum" to win Indiana and decrease Senator Obama's victory in North Carolina. If she does not do the second, even a double-digit lead may not help her. Finally, Senator Clinton must press about Florida and Michigan, a battle she has not won because the elections were illegitimate under basic standards of fair and free elections. Senator Clinton may pick up delegates but they cannot include the popular vote. (Senator Nelson from Florida is on MSNBC now speaking will Mika and Joe and the discussion of Florida is just dishonest as they do not discuss what constitutes fair elections.)
Finally, according to Tim Russert on Morning Joe, in an interview on The Today Show, Senator Clinton stated that Super Delegates, I imagine, should make a judgment based on "feelings" and "history." At this point, when you abandon the official, legitimate standard of delegate count and even disregard the unofficial and inconsistent popular vote standard, you admit you cannot win either or both, disdain the democratic process, and do not have much "hope" for winning. If "feeling" and "history" is your standard, you do not have much argumentative ground left to argue your case. Why bother having elections in the first place?
This comment is just as asinine as former President Bill Clinton stating if the rules were different, the Clinton campaign would be wining.
If it weren't for those pesky rules, aye Bill?
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