Clinton Wins Pennsylvania

The Final Margin-- 9.4%.

As expected, Clinton wins Pennsylvania though the margin of victory is still unclear at this point, especially in terms of delegates won and final popular vote total. As of now, rough estimates suggest a 6% - 10% victory in terms of popular vote. According to the five scenarios I suggested earlier, this may fall in the worst scenario, the gray area where no one really wins. As exit polls suggest, the voters in Pennsylvania expect Senator Obama to be the nominee they just wanted to vote for Senator Clinton tonight. That makes sense, maybe.

Before tonight, Senator Obama possessed a 166 (rough estimate) delegate lead and a 700,000+ lead in the popular vote. After tonight, Senator Obama will possess a 150 delegate lead and around a 500,000+ lead in the popular vote if Senator Clinton wins by 10%. FYI- this does not include Florida.

Two weeks until North Carolina and Indiana. One will go to Obama, one is undecided.

So what will we hear from the candidates for the next two weeks?

Senator Clinton:
She is down in the the official standard (delegate count), the unofficial standard (popular vote), and the momentum from Super Delegates is not on her side. Her campaign raised questions on Senator Obama but could not provide a landslide in a state that heavily favors her. Most importantly, she is not only broke but she owes a lot of people & vendors millions. In addition, her campaign costs $1,000,000 a day to run.

But she did win tonight and that means the fundraising opportunities will open up for her. She needs enough to be competitive in Indiana and attempt North Carolina. For her to have a legitimate claim to the nomination, she needs to win both states on May 6th. According to Politico, since the news organizations called the elections, she raised $500,000.

She can only win the nomination by the Super Delegates, mainly on the grounds that only she can beat Senator McCain in the fall. To argue this point, Super Delegates will need to overlook the pledged delegate count, which she cannot conceivable win, and most likely the popular vote, which she will most likely not win as her campaign expects to lose North Carolina by 150,000. Yet, this means that the elections from the past six months matter little. Think about that.

She will also push for a resolution for Florida and Michigan so we can expect to hear arguments on every variation of "Count Every Vote" regardless of the legitimacy of the election. For these states to matter, she needs the popular vote and not the delegate count.

I imagine that she will attempt to push Senator Obama for another debate. Both candidates rejected a debate in North Carolina. If I were her, I would challenge him in her victory speech tonight. She must be aggressive if she wants to win. Tomorrow, The New York Times will publish an editorial, "The Low Road to Victory," that attacks her advertisements in Pennsylvania. As the first two paragraphs suggest, time is not on her side and she is not helping what time she has left.

Yet, while she must watch her techniques, she has to emasculate Obama by showing he cannot "close the deal." Look for every variation of this argument: can't reach Hillary Voters, voters are unsure, there are still questions, etc.

Finally, she needs the support of the Super Delegates. There are roughly 350 undecided right now. She will need well over 60% of them to break her way. If she goes negative though she may lose their support.

Senator Obama
First, hope that the margin of victory is under ten and as close to 6 as possible. If it is under six you still retain a symbolic victory though you lost a few news cycles.

Second, go to Indiana and campaign with your new best friend John Mellencamp. Engage in retail politics and talk to any person that will listen. But avoid the waffles. If you win this state, this ought to be enough to end this nomination process.

Third, ignore Senator Clinton and unofficially declare yourself the winner of the primary. Be very courteous and avoid the attacks on her. If Senator Clinton cannot win the pledged delegates and if some of her close supporters stated that they would support the winner of the pledged delegates at the end of the race, then the dynamics of the race will not change. This may mean ignore calls for debating and ignore the attacks from Senator Clinton. This will be must easier to do after North Carolina.

Fourth, turn your attention to Senator McCain and do a better job of saying that he will be better than Bush. I mean it is not exactly the Commander in Chief/ threshold comment but find other ways to define him.

Fifth, economy is looking to be the issue right now. Work on developing your policy and address it with a major speech. Gain a few news cycles.

Finally, provide a steady stream of Super Delegates beginning with your speech tonight.

Senator Clinton's Speech:
There are a lot of appeals to her audience (her father played football at Penn State) but she seems to be going through the motions. I know that she must be incredible tired but she does lack passion through most of the speech. The appeals to women (grandmothers and daughters) draw the biggest applause. This is the set up for her fundraising appeal- "the future of the campaign is in your hands" or, more literally, in your purse.

She spends the end of her speech attacking President Bush with the typical red meat issues for liberals (science, education, ending war, etc.) At the end of her speech, she has a few good puns with "Yes, We Will." "Hope will be reality." "Words will be solutions."

Too bad this was too late; it would have been effective in February.