Rick Davis released a memo (via Mark Ambinder) on behalf of the McCain campaign to argue that the election is close and McCain will win. If John McCain accepts the evidence in this memo, then he should be disqualified from office.
The thesis is that the election is close and, consequently, undecided voters will decide the election for McCain (but only if those undecided voters live in swing states and if they can make up the deficit between Obama and McCain.)
Refutations to Davis' arguments:
(1) Polls show national polls are tightening, especially a Gallup poll that had the gap at two. Problem: Gallup now has the gap at eight.
(2) State polls: you have Iowa to very close; Obama has Iowa as close but still in double-digits. No one trusts you. In the South West & Colorado, you stopped advertising in Colorado, meaning you cannot win it. You will not win New Mexico and will most likely not win Nevada. Besides: it does not matter if McCain, at some unmentioned time, has made up ground on voters. He is not doing that now.
(3) Ohio and Pennsylvania: what exactly is your evidence? That you have been campaigning there? Well that makes sense.
(4) Obama has a challenge hitting 50%. Well, he may not win Missouri, North Carolina, or Indiana. I bet he comes close in those states than McCain does in Colorado, Virginia, or Pennsylvania.
(5) Early Voting: Sorry, those sporadic voters are turning out. There is actual evidence of this.
(6) Expanding the field: Done that. See Virgina, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina.
(7) The elctrocty on Monday will help the GOTV on Tuesday? Money, which you spent on advertising, would have been better.
By the way, if your campaign were doing so well, you would not need to count on others to help you. Just saying.
No comments:
Post a Comment