Pennsylvania, the New Texas

On April 22nd, Senator Clinton will most likely win the Democratic Primary in the Keystone State. Polls vary, but Real Clear Politics shows that in Quinnipiac she is up by 6% and, in Survey USA, she leads by 16%.

Yet, there is another angle to this story. Because this is a Democratic primary and, we know that Democrats adhere to fairness above equality, CQ Politics examines the congressional districts and argues that Clinton will take 53 pledged delegates to Senator Obama's 50. Like Texas, some areas receive more delegates than others.

The 103 district-level delegates are not distributed evenly. Democratic-leaning congressional districts are awarded more delegates than Republican-leaning districts. The state’s 2nd District, a Democratic bastion centered in Philadelphia, has nine district delegates to divvy up among Clinton and Obama. The heavily Republican 9th District, in the south-central part of the state, has just three.

Pennsylvania has 84 other delegates, divided between Super Delegates (29), at-large pledged delegates (35), and PLEOs (20) [a PLEO is a Pledged (Party) Leader or Elected Official]. It is this last category that Senator Clinton did not fill out a full ballot for before the deadline. According to a diary on MYDD, the at-large would split 20 - 15 Clinton and the PLEOs 12 - 8.

While I do not know how the Supers will split-- CNN reports the current Super split is, Clinton 14, Obama 5-- her pledged delegate pickup will be +11.

Combined, she will pick up 25 delegates, with 14 Supers undecided.

If she were to win the nomination, a 25 delegate pickup will not help as she is down by over 140 according to MSNBC, and this is her best chance to pick up delegates. She should do well in Puerto Rico (63) and Kentucky (60). However, Of course, Senator Obama will win North Carolina (134) and should win Oregon (65).

In the other states, Clinton will win the majority in West Virginia (39 total), Kentucky (60), while Senator Obama will win the majority in Guam (9), Montana (25), and South Dakota (23).

Indiana is the wild-card with 85 delegates and polls show this is close, meaning they will most likely split most of the delegates, leaving the winner only to pick up a few.

Senator Clinton will need to make her case to the Super Delegates through the popular vote, If that were the case, she would need at least to net 300,000 from Pennsylvania. Of course, you could make the "electibility," [who has a better shot of beating Senator McCain] if you dehistoricize the polls and ask the Super Delegates to choose within discerning what will happen or choose the nominee as late as possible, i.e. The Convention. Yet, this means you lose at least four months (May - August) to begin the fall campaign, which will hurt either candidate's ability to win in November. Is that irony?

I am starting to have other thoughts about the Democratic Primary: it is just a clever game based on Inoculation theory. I've had a feeling about this since March but I will have more on this later. However, if this were the case, then the Democrats would be serious about winning the election and would be smart about it. And, for some reason, I cannot believe this it is the case that they could play people like this as it may require a sophisticated level of coordination and organization not known to the Democratic Party.