Wednesday, January 16, 2008
What are the Republican voters thinking?
And I don't mean that sarcastically at all! I am truly flummoxed by the recent caucus and primaries. First Huckabee, then McCain, and now Romney. If Thompson wins the next one and then Guiliani after that, where does that leave the Republicans? I find it oddly gratifying that the Republicans are, for once, as indecisive the Democrats.
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One of the best aspects of the Republican race is that one of the major conventions may actually mean something.
On the Democratic side, it seems that either Hillary or Obama will receive the nomination before the Convention. This may not be true for the Republicans. So while the Democratic convention will be for and completely undramatic, the Republican convention may be highly entertaining as the delegates seek to work out an agreement for the eventual nominee. This may help Republicans in the general election as they will receive more free attention from the press and voters will feel more involved in their convention.
Further, the primaries so far provide the best example that no one candidate can hold together the Reagan coalition, at least in the primaries. Social conservatives support Huckabbee; national prominence, McCain; economic conservatives, Romney; libertarians , Ron Paul.
This means that Fred THompson has no place in the primaries ( a defeat in South Carolina would confirm this) and, unless Rudy wins Florida, on the basis that the Republican base is divided so they should select him, he will be through. Of course, Rudy did spend time and money in New Hampshire and still lost, a fact that the press has discussed very little.
Did anyone else see Chris Matthews tonight? He repeatedly compared the Republican party to the sects in Iraq: the Shi'a being Huckabee and Thompson and the Sunni being McCain and Giuliani. Romney, according to Matthews, is a Kurd. Not sure that the comparison exactly holds up--Matthews is really stretching these days--but it sure does speak to the craziness that is the Republic primary season. How any Republican winner could hold up in the general election, I, like the rest of you, have no idea.
Yippee!
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