Thursday, September 07, 2006

The absurdity of picking NFL games, let alone a Season

I decided I would be absurd as the experts by picking the records of NFL teams game by game before the season begins.

Why? Each week during the season, my wife and I pick the winners. Last season I picked 62% of the games correctly for the season. My highest week (Week 9) I went 12 - 2, picking 85%. For my lowest week, I picked only 43% (6w - 8l-- the only week I was under .500).

This system does not account for many things: It only looks at head to head (no injuris, no in week momentum). But here it is:

AFC

AFC East:
MIami Dolphins: 12 - 4
Buffalo: 11 - 5
New England: 10 - 6
N.Y. Jets: 3 - 13

AFC North:
Cincinnati: 14 - 2
Pittsburg: 10 - 6
Cleveland: 6 - 10
Baltimore: 5 - 11

AFC South:
Indianapolis: 14 - 2
Jacksonville: 11 - 5
Tennessee: 3 - 13
Houston: 2 - 14

AFC West
Denver: 13 - 3
San Diego: 12 - 4
Kansas City: 7 - 9
Oakland: 2 - 14

NFC

NFC East:
Philadelphia: 12 - 4
NY Giants: 10 - 6
Dallas: 9 -7
Washington: 9 - 7

NFC Norris:
Chicago: 13 - 3
Detroit: 4 - 12
Minnesota: 4- 12
Green Bay: 3 - 13

NFC South:
Carolina 14 - 2
Tampa Bay: 10 - 6
Atlanta: 6 - 10
New Orleans: 4 - 12

NFC Who Cares?
Seattle 13 - 3
Arizona: 8 - 8
St. Louis: 7 - 9
San Fransico: 1 - 15

Playoffs:
AFC Seeds
(1) Indy
(2) Denver
(3) Cinci
(4) Miami
(5) San Diego
(6) Buffalo

NFC Seeds
(1) Carolina
(2) Seattle
(3) Chicago
(4) Philly
(5) NY Giants
(6) Tampa

AFC Playoffs
Cinci over Buffalo
San Diego over Miami
Indy over San Diego
Cinci over Denver
Indy over Cincinnati

NFC
Chicago over Tampa
Philly over NY Giants
Carolina over Philly
Seattle over Chicago
Carolina over Seattle

Indy over Carolina

Comments:
There should be a + or - 2 associated with this.

AFC: East
Miami- if #8 stays healthy and he regains his touch, they win the division. If not, place New England or Buffalo here.
Buffalo is my suprise team from the AFC because their back 8 is so favorable- aside from INDY, their two "hardest" games are against Miami and Jacksonville in Western New York after November 1st. Unfortunately, Bills fans have become conditioned to ignore the Bills from November on. Instead, the fans in Buffalo turn to the Sabres from the near beginning, hoping they will raise the Cup in the Spring of 2007.
New England will not make the playoffs this year. This is their year to fall. I blame injuries and their kicker. But mostly, I just want to watch them not make the playoffs and return to being the hapless Pats of the 1980's and 1990's.
NY Jets. Oh well. Some people watch college football because they enjoy it. You'll watch college football to find a quarterback for next year. And maybe a running back. And maybe 20 other people.

AFC: North
Cinci: if Carson's knee holds up, AFC championship. If not, Pittsburg will claim the division.
Pitt: Good luck. But distractions will rip through this team and my 10-6 record will end up looking optimistic.
Cleveland: Go Brownies. You will earn respect eventually but you will not overcome a first week loss to New Orleans.
Baltimore: I just don't think Mr. Fragile will be the answer.

AFC South:
Indy- Repeat again this year: "This is your year Peyton." At least you have a better kicker. I hope he is healthy.
Jacksonville- This record is way to high for you. But, you will at least win 4 - 5 in your division. Now that you have a tough schedule, let's see if having no offense will help you. A freak second half blizzard in Buffalo will doom you and keep you out of the playoffs.
Tenn- Vince Young today. Vince Young Tomorrow. Vince Young... will you ever hold on to the ball?. Your other options won't help.
Houston- Maybe next year you'll take the top player in the draft when you have the #1 pick. Oh. You won't get the number one pick because San Fransico will.

AFC: West
Denver: At least you'll lose to a new team in the playoffs this year.
San Diego: Playoff bound. But it won't help.
Kansas City: How Long till Coach Edwards will want to coach the Steelers?
Raiders: I will refuse to use any Aaron Brooks jokes- so, let's see how Brady Quinn will look in black instead of Gold and Green. Will the refs protect him in the pro's as they do in college?

NFC: East
Philly- Fresh air and a division title.
NY Giants- Just beause you play in the NFC. That is the only way in which you will reach the playoffs.
Dalllas- Tony. Toni. Tony. Toni. WIll Drew retire or want to be traded? If Toni Romo is not starting by Oct., the city will implode.
Washington: Another team where the focus will be on the backup quarterback for most of the season.

NFC: North:
Chicago: I do not believe that Chicago will win 13 games. However, I do not have the time to go back week to week and correct this. Nor do I care to do this for a team that will lose in the second round of the playoffs. Let's face it. Their division is terrible and they should go 6-0 in the division. They will lose 2 to the AFC east and one to Seattle. They beat Tampa because they play in Chicago after October.
Detroit, Green Bay, and Minnesota: You will only beat each other. If you beat someone else, no one will notice.

NFC: South:
Carolina: You'll lose another Superbowl. But it is not your year. Maybe next year.
Tampa: A sixth team needs to make the playoffs and you are that team. Good Luck.
Atlanta: I want to like this team but I cannot find anything about them on the field that makes me want to say they will be successful.
New Orleans: They'll make the playoffs in 07. But this year?

I wish your team(s) luck this year. Unless of course your team is Dallas, New England, Houston, Detroit, Green Bay, or San Francisco. For the first two, I do not care. For the last four, you have no hope and you should pick up another hobby. Or maybe read a book. Or maybe go for a walk. Or maybe adopt a cat. Or maybe...

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